The Fantasy Basketball Stock Watch
By Brian Wagoner, Fantasy Basketball Expert for FantasyFanatics.com
Just as the dust settled on a couple of blockbuster deals last week, we may have another one on our hands if the Nets and Mavericks can sort out Devean George’s contract in a deal that would send Jason Kidd back to Dallas. The next week that leads up to the trading deadline appears to not only be attention-grabbing, but it could have a major shake up in your fantasy league as well.
It is important to remember when analyzing a deal to not only look at the players involved in the trade, but also who is going to fill the void of the player traded away. An example is in Memphis with the much criticized, and rightfully so, deal with the Lakers. Pau Gasol landed in Los Angeles, however, who is going to pick up the slack that he left behind with the Grizzlies? We will examine that question as well as look at some other players worth noting in this week’s Stock Watch.
On the Rise
Darko Milicic – Power Forward/Center – Grizzlies – Have you come over to the “Darko Side” yet? I can not blame you if you are a little hesitant. He has been a disappointment of historic proportions and one of the very few mistakes that Joe Dumars has made in running the Pistons. However, since Pau Gasol was shipped westward, he has actually been pretty darn good. His numbers since the deal: 11 points, 9 boards, and 1.6 blocked shots a game on 46% shooting. Still, with all of the other options out there at power forward and center, Darko should still only be used if you really need his rebounds and blocked shots and can stand the sub-60% from the line.
Andre Miller – Point Guard – Sixers – Miller has been rumored on his way out of Philadelphia from the moment he arrived last season in the deal that sent Allen Iverson to Denver. But a funny thing happened . . . Miller has played great basketball for the Sixers. So much so, that now management is beginning to think of him as a piece to build the franchise on, especially considering his role in the recent hot steak the team is on. Miller does turn 32 next month, so it is difficult for me to believe that he will be able to contribute much when their young stars such as Louis Williams, Thaddeus Young, Jason Smith, and Shavlik Randolph (just kidding) are hitting their prime. Fantasy owners should just sit back and enjoy the big time numbers that Miller is producing on a team that needs his scoring just as much as they need his assists.
Jameer Nelson – Point Guard – Magic – The Carlos Arroyo Experiment finally came to a crashing halt this week in Orlando. Nelson was inserted back into the starting rotation after languishing on the bench and even earning a couple DNP – Coach’s Decisions along the way. The fire appears to be back in Nelson’s game. His last two games, he is averaging 19.5 points and 6.5 assists on 48% from the field. It is now safe to insert him back into your fantasy lineup for the foreseeable future.
Chris Wilcox - Power Forward/Center – Sonics – Like Jameer Nelson, Wilcox had to earn his way back into a starting role. He did so about three weeks ago and has been very good ever since. He has really stepped up his game in February. His averages for the first four games of the month: 17.5 points, 9.8 rebounds, and 2 assists per game on 58.5% shooting. The downside is that he has struggled with his free throw shooting this month, even more than usual.
On the Way Down
Andris Biedrins – Center – Warriors – Biedrins has the potential to be a fantasy star. However, to realize that potential, he really has to avoid getting into foul trouble. His foul trouble has became so much of an issue that the Warriors brought in Chris Webber to start at center and to, hopefully, alleviate some pressure on Biedrins. This month, he has only gotten over 24 minutes in a game once – a 12 point, 18 rebound effort in a loss against the Bulls. You have to keep him active for those big rebounding nights. However, it appears that you are going get plenty of inconsistent play to go along with those boards.
Linas Kleiza – Shooting Guard/Small Forward – Nuggets – Klieza proved that he could be an offensive force and a reliable fantasy player while replacing Carmelo Anthony in the starting lineup. However, Anthony is back and Kleiza returns to his reduced role off the bench. He is a skilled enough offensive player to still put up a big night every now and then, even if his minutes are down. But do not expect helpful fantasy numbers on a game-to-game basis from him unless injuries strike again or if he is involved in a trade to a non-contending team.
Kyle Lowry – Guard – Grizzlies – Lowry did not fair extremely well in his brief time as the starting point guard with Damon Stoudamire in San Antonio and Mike Conley injured. Well, that is not entirely true, here are his splits in his six starts: first three game averages – 19 points, 3 assists, 5.7 rebounds, and 1.7 steals and in the second three games – 7.3 points, 4 assists, 1.7 rebounds, and 0.3 steals. Those numbers have the look of a guy that you can plug in occasionally, but do not want to be the man for very long – in other words: a back-up. That is not what you want in a fantasy option.
Jason Terry – Guard – Mavericks – Terry was expected to take on a larger role for the Mavericks with Devin Harris out with injury. He has struggled with the extra workload. In the first eight games that Harris has missed, Terry is just shooting barely over 40% from the field, much different than his 46% season average. With Jason Kidd likely on his way back to Big D, Terry might just get a spark back in his fantasy value.
Skimming the Free Agent Pool
Mark Blount– Center – Heat – Okay, I just threw up a little in my mouth just typing the name. As a long time Celtics fan, I have seen Blount go from a hungry, energy player to an overpaid prima donna during his time in Boston. But personal feelings aside, Blount appears to be a beneficiary of the deal that sent Shaquille O’Neal to Phoenix. His main competition now for minutes at the center position is Pat Riley wanting to go small – it is hard to imagine Earl Barron or the undersized Joel Anthony much competition at all. He is having his best month of the season so far in February with averages of: 15.8 points and 6.3 rebounds. Blount’s 18 points and 13 rebounds – yes, amazingly, “Blount” and “13 rebounds” in the same sentence – against the Nuggets this week give us a glimmer of hope that the hungry, hustling player might just reemerge.
Nenad Krstic – Power Forward/Center – Nets – If you have a roster space, you might want to go out and grab Krstic. He is beginning to get back into game shape after taking some extra time off to recover from last season’s knee surgery. He is a big part of the Nets future and should receive an increased role as soon as he can prove that he can handle it. In his last game, he scored 10 points and grabbed 8 rebounds in just 15 minutes. It would not surprise me at all if he averaged 14 points and 8 boards in March.
Thabo Sefolosha – Shooting Guard/Small Forward – Bulls – There is one thing, and one thing only keeping Sefolosha from being a sure fire fantasy starter. That one thing is playing time. He has gotten plenty of run since being inserted into the starting lineup in mid-January. His numbers this season as a starter in over 33 minutes a game: 12.1 points, 6.1 rebounds, 2.6 assists, and 1.4 steals. However, he may be the odd man out when, or if, the Bulls ever get back to full strength. In the meantime, he is worth a spot on your fantasy roster, especially if Luol Deng and Ben Gordon continue to miss time due to injury.
Hakim Warrick – Forward – Grizzlies – The trade that rattled the Western Conference, left a huge hole in Memphis’ rotation. Warrick seems like a good candidate to help fill that hole. He was good last season replacing the injured Pau Gasol, averaging 15 points and 6.5 rebounds as a starter last year. With that track record and the 28 point, 13 rebound effort in a win against the Kings this week, Warrick may be just worth taking a shot on.
The Deep End
Thaddeus Young – Forward – Sixers – The talented rookie has been a roll lately. Young is averaging 11.8 points and 6.3 rebound while shooting a 59.6% field goal percentage in six February games. With him being a rookie, you should not get too excited, as there are sure to be more ups and down this season for his numbers. However, if you are in a deep keeper league, his performance is definitely worth noting.
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POSTED IN: Fantasy Trades, Player Analysis, Waiver Wire
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