The Fantasy Basketball Stock Watch
By Brian Wagoner, Fantasy Basketball Expert for FantasyFanatics.com
So far this season, we have suffered through several “here today, gone tomorrow” fantasy free agent pick-ups. The 2007-2008 NBA season has been full of these: Damien Wilkins, Antoine Wright, Jamario Moon, Sean Williams, Rashad McCants, Andray Blatche, and DeShawn Stevenson. The first “Stock Watch” of the New Year will continue the search for players that will maintain a fantasy impact for your team.
On the Rise
Brendan Haywood – Center – Wizards
Don’t get me wrong, I am not on the Haywood bandwagon just yet. However, the numbers that he has put up this season just can’t be ignored. So far, he is averaging career highs in points (10.6) and rebounds (8.1). More impressively, his free throw percentage (72.1%) is an astounding nine percentage points above his previous career best. He also has been able to hold off up-and-comer Andray Blatche for the minutes in the post. Haywood is still not an elite option at center; in fact, hopefully you are not relying on his production. However, he is proving to be a solid option as a second center or even at a utility spot for a team in need of rebounds or blocks.
Brandon Roy – Guard – Trailblazers
Roy is teetering on fantasy stardom. He finished 2007 with a bang. His December averages: 21.2 points, 5.3 rebounds, and 6.4 assists on 47% shooting. All he has to do now is show that he can produce these statistics over the long haul. That is saying a lot, considering that it was the first time in his career that he posted monthly averages of 20+ points, 5+ rebounds, and 6+ assists.
Gerald Wallace – Forward – Bobcats
Wallace has thrived since being shifted to the power forward spot three games ago. In those games, he has averaged 27.3 points, 8.7 rebounds, 6.3 assists, 1.7 steals, and a block while hitting 3 three pointers a game. It is not clear how long the Bobcats will stick with this lineup, going 1-2 since the change. Regardless, Wallace has been solid all year long, including career high averages in three pointers made, free throw percentage, and assists.
David West – Power Forward – Hornets
Entering this season West was a good, but not an elite fantasy option at power forward. However, he is stating his case to be a top five option at his position. He already has three games with 30 or more points this season. He only had four games with 30+ points last season in 52 games. Last season, he had only one game with 15 or more rebounds; this season he has four games and counting. So, it appears that West is getting even better. He is also averaging a career high in blocked shots and had five blocks in a December game.
On the Way Down
Ronnie Brewer – Guard/Forward – Jazz
Brewer makes the list for the second consecutive week. Last time, the concern was with the third year swingman C.J. Miles. Now, to muddy the waters, Kyle Korver comes over in a trade from Philadelphia. If Brewer has one weakness, it is the range on his jump shot, which happens to be a strong point to Korver’s game. What Brewer has going for him is that he is the best defender of the three. He could have some fantasy value if he can fend off his competition and keep his minutes north of 27 a game.
Rashard Lewis – Forward – Magic
Lewis is still an elite option at small forward, especially if you need three point production. However, he was brought to Orlando on a hefty contract to be the primary offensive weapon. He currently sits as the third leading scorer on the roster behind Dwight Howard and Hedo Turkoglu. Most players would be happy with a scoring average of over 18 points a game, but much more was expected from Lewis. Part of the problem is that he has not been as aggressive since landing with the Magic. That can most clearly be demonstrated by the fewest free throw attempts per game in five years. On the bright side, he is on pace to reach a new career high in three point makes.
Zach Randolph – Forward – Knicks
What would this list be without at least one Knick? This time Randolph makes it – yes, we are giving Eddy Curry the week off. What are the Knickerbockers to do with Randolph? He is an elite offensive talent, but shows no interest in playing defense. They also have David Lee (the Bizzaro-Randolph) playing key end-of-game minutes while Randolph serves as a cheerleader from the bench. What started out as a “hey, this just might work” idea in the acquisition of Randolph has appeared to have gone very, very wrong. The Knicks have lost 12 of their last 15 games, so more roster shake-ups and adjustments are expected, making a flux in minutes are a definite possibility.
Jason Terry – Guard – Mavericks
Terry has managed to play over 30 minutes one time in his last eight games. During that span of games, Terry averaged 9.9 points, 2.0 rebounds, 2.6 assists, and only one three pointer a game on 36% shooting, all well below his season averages. Terry seemed just fine coming off the bench to start the season, but has struggled with the latest move to a reserve role. The good news is that he seems to go through these stretches a couple times a year, so history tells us that he should bounce back and be fine. Terry may be a decent player to target in a trade.
Skimming the Free Agent Pool
Kyle Korver – Small Forward – Jazz
Korver moves westward to the Jazz in a deal that sent Gordan Giricek to the 76ers. It may be just the thing that Korver needs to get his fantasy value back. This not a sure thing, of course He faces some stiff competition from a couple of young wing players in Utah. He is an underrated team defender playing the passing lanes and collecting a few steals in the process. Expect Korver to fit in nicely on a team that needs his services from behind the arc and become a viable fantasy option.
Joe Smith – Power Forward – Bulls
When Scott Skiles was fired, it appeared that some of the young players might get an opportunity for extended playing time. However, this team still has post-season dreams in mind. Therefore, they have been rolling out the veterans for extended minutes. One of these veterans is Smith. He has scored double figures in five of his last six games, including a 19 point, 11 rebound game against Tim Duncan and the Spurs. He does not do much in the blocked shot or steal categories. On the bright side, he does not hurt your team’s percentages. Unless Tyrus Thomas, Joakim Noah, or Aaron Gray prove they are ready for consistent prime-time minutes, expect Smith to be a solid option for rebounds and points.
Earl Watson – Point Guard – Sonics
Watson seems to be gaining a “leg-up” on his competition as the Sonics’ main point guard. With Luke Ridnour hampered by injuries all season and Delonte West appearing to be better suited for a combo guard role off the bench, Watson has held his own as the starting point guard. In December, he posted per game averages of 9.8 points, 6.5 assists, 3.3 rebounds, 0.8 three pointers, and 0.7 steals in just under 30 minutes. He is not, nor will he probably ever be, a sure fire fantasy starter, but in a season where assists seem to be one of the toughest categories to secure, only 15 players in the NBA average more assists per game than Watson.
In the Deep End
Brevin Knight – Point Guard – Clippers
I have been touting the goods of Knight all season and so far he made me look a little nuts. It finally appears that he may have hit his stride for the Clippers. You draft Knight for two things: assists and steals, everything else is a bonus. Since November 30th, he has posted averages of 5.1 assists and 1.8 steals a game. During these games, he has shot 45% from the field with five games in double figures plus collecting his only four blocks of the season. He may be worth a look if he can up his pace just a little, which would put him around Steve Blake-type realm of fantasy consideration without the three pointers, but better steals.
Rookie Review
Rodney Stuckey – Guard – Pistons – Stuckey is currently serving as the point guard back up to Chauncey Billups. However, this rookie has aircraft carrier-size upside. He is a big, strong guard that can handle the ball and shoot from outside. In fewer than 16 minutes a game, he is averaging 5.1 points, 3.0 assists, and 1.4 steals. He has not found his shooting touch since returning from a broken bone in his hand; however, it should be just a matter of time before he gets the feel for his jumper. It appears that minutes are going to be hard to come by, but these types of issues have a way of working out. If you are in a keeper league, especially a deep keeper league, Stuckey should probably be on your roster. For now, put Stuckey on your watch list and nab him if his minutes go above 28 a game, especially if it comes at the expense of a Billups or Richard Hamilton injury.
A Friendly Fantasy Tip
There is nothing more frustrating than sticking with a player through a prolonged slump, only to bench him (or worse, drop him) right before he has a career night (or worse, several career nights). This is something that I struggle with on a constant basis and it can be absolutely maddening. To help prevent this situation it is important to know the history of the player. If he is a notoriously streaky player, you should probably show a little patience. However, if the player has not proven to bounce back strong from a slump; you may want to take your chances and move on. Unfortunately, there are a number of these players that you have to deal with in order to be successful at fantasy basketball.
If you do not want these extreme highs and extreme lows, a strategy would be to wait until your player is in the midst of a hot streak and try to shop him around for a steadier producer. There are no guarantees in dealing with a player in a funk, but looking at the record of the player along with your gut feeling should help you past most of these situations. Good Luck!
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POSTED IN: Player Analysis, Waiver Wire
1 opinion for The Fantasy Basketball Stock Watch
Farid
Jan 5, 2008 at 7:16 pm
Those streaky players that you refer to in your tip in the last paragraph are especially annoying in H2H leagues because they completely screw you over some weeks and are god sends the next.
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