The Fantasy Basketball Stock Watch
By the Fantasy Basketball Experts at FantasyFanatics.com
It is a simple principle of physics: every action has a reaction. The same principal can be applied to fantasy basketball. For example, the lackluster play of Eddy Curry has opened up a bigger role for David Lee, the strong play of C.J. Miles has resulted in more time on the bench for Ronnie Brewer, and the injury to Alonzo Mourning has opened up an opportunity for the unknown Earl Barron. Let us look at those situations as well as a few others that will have an impact on the fantasy basketball season.
On the Rise
Andrew Bynum – Center – Lakers – Bynum, although only 20 years old, has established himself has one of the best young centers in the league. He still makes a lot of mistakes, like getting in foul trouble and hanging his head after not getting a pass when he feels that he is open. He is also somewhat of a liability at the free throw line. However, he has made great strides since being drafted at age 17 in the 2005 draft. This season he is averaging a double-double with over two blocks a game while shooting better than 60% from the field. Bynum is still learning and should continue to improve his overall game, including raising his percentage from the line. He is on the cusp of becoming a top 10 fantasy center.
Al Jefferson – Forward/Center – Timberwolves – Jefferson looked like a player on the rise entering this season after averaging 16 points and 11 rebounds last season. So far this season, he has established himself one of the top options at center in the NBA. He boasts averages of 20.4 points and 12 rebounds a game. More importantly, he has become what most fantasy owners covet most: consistently good. Jefferson has scored in single-digits once (9 points on December 1st), only 6 single-digit rebound games, and only 4 games without a block in his first 26 contests. Also, he had 6 games in a row in December with at least 20 points and 10 rebounds.
David Lee – Power Forward – Knicks – The New York fans has been clamoring for a lineup shake-up adding Lee to the starting five. It has resulted in a little more opportunity at the expense of Eddy Curry’s uninspired play. Although, Lee does not have his numbers up to last year’s mark yet; he seems to be on his way. His great percentages make up for his weak assists and blocked shots numbers. It just feels like something big is going to happen with the Knicks that could, and should give Lee greater fantasy value.
On the Way Down
Ronnie Brewer – Guard/Forward – Jazz – After tying his season high of 19 points a week ago, Brewer has had a steady decline in his playing time and production. This culminated in a 20 minute, 2 point game on December 22nd. His season averages are still pretty good: 12.9 points, 2.8 rebounds, 2.3 assists, and 2.2 steals. He was not a guarantee going into this season and has been a nice surprise so far. Brewer seems to have hit a bump in his solid season, so it may be a good idea to keep him on the bench until you see around 33 minutes a game.
Eddy Curry – Center – Knicks – Curry has incredible offensive talent. However, what has been the most offensive lately is the lack of passion that Curry plays with. He has not put the work on his bloated body to become a great center. His sub-60% from the free throw line and less than 6 rebounds a game make him a borderline fantasy bench player. Things were looking up for Curry coming into this season after averaging career highs last season in points (19.5) and rebounds (7.1). It appears that he does not have the desire to be a great player in the league.
Jamario Moon – Forward – Raptors – Moon was one of the best stories early in the season. He paid his dues in almost every league imaginable, and finally got his shot in the NBA at age 27. He was a hot commodity after averaging 11.5 points, 9.8 rebounds, 2.8 blocks, and 1.8 steals in the last 3 games of November and first game of December. Moon has not seen similar success lately only averaging 3.7 points, 2.7 rebounds, 0.7 blocks, and 0.7 steals over his last three games. Although he is still a starter, his minutes have been closer to a reserve.
Skimming the Free Agent Pool
Josh Boone – Forward/Center – Boone is the latest in a long line of Nets big men this season to get a shot at considerable playing time. He has responded nicely with averages of 11.2 points, 8.8 rebounds, 1 steal, and 1.2 blocks a game on 56% from the field in his last 6 games. On the downside, he is only shooting 28.6% from the foul line. Boone does not have a huge upside, especially offensively. He looks to be more of a short term answer than a sure-fire fantasy starter at center. Boone should be added if you have a need for a rebounding center.
Gerald Green – Guard/Forward – Timberwolves – Green can put the ball in the basket, no doubt about it. He has three point range, a nice mid-range game, and the ability to get to the rim. What has dogged him in his early career is that he has been mistake prone. On offense, he turns the ball over at a high rate and on defense he lacks good defensive positioning. The Timberwolves are in a position this season to show a little patience and see exactly what they have in him as a player. So far so good with Green, he has averages of 13.7 points, 5.3 rebounds, 3.7 assists, and 2.7 three pointers in his last 3 games. There is absolutely no guarantee for continued minutes here as the Timberwolves are still in search of stability and a solid rotation.
C.J. Miles – Shooting Guard – Jazz – Miles is the offense to Ronnie Brewers’ defense. Miles is an above average scorer with three point range. Still only 20 years old, he has had a bumpy road in his three year NBA career. He seems to have figured a few things out and has come on lately. He dropped 20 points with 4 rebounds and 3 assists on the Heat on December 22nd in over 27 minutes. It is not recommended that you go out a grab Miles just yet; just watch the minute distribution between him and Brewer. Miles could be a second half sleeper in points and threes.
Nazr Mohammed – Center – Bobcats – Mohammad always seems to play well when he is on losing teams. His averages in 283 games with the Hawks, Knicks, and Bobcats: 8.9 points and 7.0 rebounds. Conversely, in 259 games with the 76ers (yes, they were once good), Spurs, and Pistons: 4.5 points and 3.9 rebounds. So, it appears to be a brilliant career move for Mohammed getting shipped to the sub-.500 Bobcats. Averages close to the double-double range would not be out of the question if Mohammed continues to stay healthy.
Bobby Simmons – Guard/Forward – Bucks – Simmons seemed to be one of the primary benefactors in the wake of the Desmond Mason injury; that has not been the case yet as his minutes continue to stay in the teens. He has the ability to fill a stat sheet, with the exception of blocked shots given 30+ minutes a night. Obviously, Simmons does not warrant a pick-up yet, just watch his minutes and production closely.
Dorell Wright – Guard/Forward – Heat – Wright is a superior athlete that is refining his game from a pure basketball standpoint. The lack of depth in Miami has given him a chance to contribute and even start for most of the month of December. He provides additional value by blocking shots from the shooting guard/small forward position, averaging 2.4 blocks in his last 5 games. The downside to Wright’s game is that he does not give you much in the assists or three pointers categories. The Heat seem to be in search for more answers; so, Wright may get a long audition as a starter.
The Deep End:
Earl Barron – Center – Heat – When Alonzo Mourning went down for the season, the door of opportunity
swung wide open for Barron. He should get a chance to show his wares backing up Shaquille O’Neal. He could really be a factor if the oft injured O’Neal goes down. Barron is long and lean and has some offensive ability. He could get you double-figures in scoring, 6 rebounds, and close to 2 blocks a game if given 25 minutes a game.
Rookie Review
Aaron Gray – Center – Bulls – Gray was a late bloomer in college at Pittsburgh. He worked hard enough to become a 2nd round draft pick in the 2007 NBA draft. However, the odds are against most second round picks from making the NBA team, let alone make an impact. Gray has made the roster, but has yet to make an impact, at least enough of an impact for the fantasy world to take notice. He is a big body, even big for a seven foot tall player. He is an above average position rebounder and has a nice touch around the basket. He does not have a great jumping ability, but is smart enough to block shots based on timely leaping. Gray achieved his first double-double on December 19th and followed it up with a 14 point, 6 rebound night against the Celtics on the 21st. His minutes were the result of Ben Wallace not being available due to injury. Gray has the look of a solid NBA center and a decent option on your fantasy bench with some upside.
A Friendly Fantasy Tip:
When offering a mid-season trade to another team, you must do your homework. Look to see where some points could realistically be gained by making a deal. Not only should you look at what the trade offers your team, but look at how the deal may help the other team as well. This may help you “sell” the deal to the other team. It is not always about getting the best player in a mid-season trade. Sometimes it is more about getting the most in a category that you are deficient in without losing too much in the other categories. Also, try not to “low-ball” the other owner in the first trade offer. This could cause the other owner to either shut out the next few offers or look at you with a distrustful eye. This is a tough one to abide by because instinctively you try to get the most for your offering. Following these tips will help you make solid trades and build trust amongst your other league owners. Happy trading!
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POSTED IN: Player Analysis, Rookies, Waiver Wire
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